The Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

Even without a brilliant mathematician whose work has predicted every crash since 1987 pulling all of his money out of the market, I’d say there are more than enough indicators for even the modestly intelligent person to be worried about. Record and rising unemployment, record low and sinking housing market, lack of industry to base a recovery on, rapid and massive expansion of government and associated taxes.

I’d say if you aren’t working on storing up a few months worth of food and basic survival needs as an insurance policy, you may be behind the 8-ball.  Get on your knees and pray.


http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/23/yes-folks-hindenburg-omen-tripped-again/#

  • August 23, 2010, 2:01 PM ET

Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

The Hindenburg Omen reared its ugly head late last week, signaling more doom and gloom as stocks plod along amid the dog days of summer.

The Omen, a technical indicator which uses a plethora of data to foreshadow a stock-market crash, was tripped again on Friday, marking the second time since Aug. 12 it has occurred. (It also came close on Thursday, but one of its criteria fell short.)

The latest trigger has prompted the Omen’s creator, Jim Miekka, to exit the market. “I’m taking it seriously and I’m fully out of the market now,” Miekka, a blind mathematician, said in a telephone interview from his home in Surry, Maine. “I would’ve probably stayed in until the beginning of September,” depending on how the indicators varied. “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”

The Omen has been behind every market crash since 1987, but significant stock-market declines have followed only 25% of the time. So there’s a high likelihood that the Omen could be nothing more than a false signal.

But that isn’t stopping Miekka from taking any chances, especially as September, typically the market’s worst-performing month, sits only one week away.

“It’s sort of like a funnel cloud,” he said. “It doesn’t mean it’s going to crash, but it’s a high probability. You don’t get a tornado without a funnel cloud.” He added he’s not currently shorting anything, although he may look to short Nasdaq stock index futures in the next few weeks, “depending on how the technicals go.”

Despite the ominous forecast, there are some glimmers of hope. Miekka doesn’t expect to sit on the sidelines for very long. In fact, Miekka, who is an avid target shooter despite being blind, is looking at put volumes and various moving averages that will offer clues of when he will start buying again.

“With what we have now, I think it’s possible we could get a 20% decline going into the fall,” Miekka said. “But I would expect some type of selloff and be buying at a lower price.”

+


Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: